Building a reproducible public-data foundation for every experiment.
| Venue / Pair | State | Age | Latency | OK / Fail |
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| Pair | Buy => Sell | VWAPs | Skew | Net after costs | Result |
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Testing payout identities and funding carry against public depth and execution costs.
USDT or USD to BTC to ETH and back on one venue, using all three order books.
| Venue | Route | Skew | Final | Net after costs | Scans | Result |
|---|
Equal quantity long on the lower-rate venue and short on the higher-rate venue.
| Asset | Long / Short | Annual spread | Projected funding | Round-trip cost | Projected net | Result |
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Past-only signal, one-hour delayed entry, non-overlapping holds, actual funding and basis PnL.
| Horizon | Episodes | Base wins | Base net | 2x execution net | Average return | Worst episode |
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If at most one market can settle YES, at least all but one selected NO contracts must pay.
| Event | Legs | All-in cost | Payout floor | Net floor | Scans | Result |
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Separating raw paper profit from independent, executable edge.
| Group | Rows | Markets | Events | Raw PnL | Event ROI | Fee + 1c |
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Locking one prospective fair-value decision per independent daily weather event.
| City / Date | Contract / Side | Ensemble | Model p | Market p | Effective cost | Edge | Decision |
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Testing whether public market data can beat executable crypto contract prices.
| Asset / Side | Horizon | Model p | Market p | Effective cost | Edge | Kelly | Decision |
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Comparing matched options and prediction-market thresholds without pretending near matches are arbitrage.
| Asset / Threshold | Option | Expiry gap | Option p range | Market p | Effective cost | Lower edge | Match |
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Testing whether strict contract implications can be bought below their guaranteed payout floor.
| Strong event => weak event | YES weak | NO strong | All-in cost | Floor margin | Profitable capacity | Decision |
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Testing whether official releases can be parsed and mapped before prices adjust.
| Entity / Trigger | Market | YES bid / ask | Ask depth | Quote age | State |
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| Form | Entity | Category | First seen | Mode |
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| Market / Side | Entry | Decision | Pre-quote | 30s markout | Mode |
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